Are Theatres Dying?

I recently watched this video from Films&Stuff:

Hmm… (Courtesy of Films&Stuff.)

I love this channel. I don’t agree with everything Jonathan says, but he’s able to make compelling enough arguments anyway. The same can be said here, a video that’s well thought-out despite its short length. However, one key detail’s missing. And no, it’s not about Elemental being slow to recoup its budget. Rather, it’s about why audiences aren’t showing up for movies like before: we’re experiencing COVID fatigue.

Some of you are probably rolling your eyes. How could a virus that’s no longer causing mass deaths still be a concern? Ignoring how China had over 150 million positive cases last year, scientists are predicting another wave in August and September. It might be milder than before, but we shouldn’t be careless. Especially not with COVID.

I could prattle on about how the world hasn’t been taking this virus seriously since its inception, but I’d rather focus on the pandemic’s impact on the box office. Because it’s had an impact. Much like inflation, unionization and various illnesses currently in the public eye, so too have movie theatres been impacted over the last few years. More than budgets, franchise fatigue and a lack of creativity, the pandemic’s played a part in how audiences experience movies. To explain why, let’s rewind the clock.

In the early days of the pandemic, theatres were in total lockdown. They opened temporarily to accommodate Tenet, but that didn’t last. For the most part, theatres weren’t operating. And most movies were shoved out onto streaming services like Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime. Streaming services actually saw boosts in subscribers during this time! It was a win-win for consumers, who didn’t have to leave their homes to watch movies, and the studios, who got to show off their new toys.

Unfortunately, that was a double-edged sword. While streaming made it convenient, when restrictions lessened and theatres opened again, the damage had already been done. We saw it partly with Scarlett Johansson and Black Widow, but also theatre attendance being down. Cinemas, which’d already been a hassle to venture to, were now an afterthought, with trekking to them becoming optional. There were exceptions, but most of the moviegoing magic was now nonexistent. It was no longer about going to a packed room, especially with a risk of getting sick.

So it’s no wonder why many big releases no longer make big bank. And while Jonathan’s right that swelled budgets don’t help, especially since the target for profit’s now higher, the audience also isn’t biting as frequently. After all, why go and buy overpriced tickets when you can wait and watch a movie on your computer or TV in a few weeks/months? Doesn’t that make more sense?

This should be a wake-up call for studios too. Movies in the past relied on people seeing them and telling friends, but that isn’t working anymore. We’re now more reluctant to venture outside our comfort zones, hence films are taking longer to gain word-of-mouth. That isn’t to say movies aren’t making any money, they are, but it requires patience. Especially with movies like Elemental, which are original IPs.

You know what’s not helping? The reduced time between theatrical releases and home releases. It’s helped streaming, but harmed theatres significantly. A movie used to have a whole year in theatres before moving to video, allowing time to resonate with audiences. Lately, however, the window’s shrunk, as executives lack patience to let their releases speak for themselves. This, when coupled with audience reticence to risk their health, is a recipe for movies bombing financially.

Now, there’ve been exceptions. Avatar: The Way of Water made more money than its predecessor in a shorter period. Both Spider-Man movies released since the pandemic have seen record returns. Even Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Super Mario Bros. Movie have done well! But these movies all relied on brand recognition, nostalgia or familiarity with the IP, and sometimes all three. It’s much harder with movies that don’t have any of that, original stories particularly.

Is there a way to remedy this? Yes. The solution would be stepping back to breathe, instead of huffing and puffing over immediate results. Remember that we’re still suffering from pandemic trauma, and that takes time to disappear. Like the 1919 flu, life won’t return to normal immediately. People need to rebuild trust, and patience is necessary. We need to heal before we resume life.

I get it: it sucks that movies aren’t cash cows like they used to be. Despite my gripes, I like the energy of the movie theatre! There’s a vibe of sitting in a packed auditorium that isn’t replicated with streaming! But my health comes first. And when tentpole releases are being accused of “bloated runtimes”, I have to weigh the pros and cons of going to see new releases. Especially when tickets aren’t cheap!

So yes, Jonathan didn’t take this into consideration. I also think it’s not being acknowledged by everyone else.